Under Over strategy in soccer betting

Why do bookies say over 2.5 goals?

Bettors often have doubts about which trend to follow and at what level of odds to bet. Betting on the favorites in the 1X2 is not wrong, even if the so-called “short odds” (the lowest odds) are often undervalued.

Today we will talk instead about the Under and Over 2.5 bet related to the overall goals of a given football match. What trend to follow? Are there more profitable bands of shares? We see it immediately.

Over 2.5 sure predictions

Let’s start by saying that most bettors bet on the Over while following live matches. This means that the shareholders, to balance the risk, reward the Under with some shares that have a greater intrinsic value.

Why do bettors follow this trend? Essentially because while they watch the match they want to have fun and see goals, not a game that ends 0-0.

We always keep in mind that bookmakers have historians at their disposal and therefore if they notice a favorable trend, they correct the lines. Focusing on generally very low Under / Over shares, the market is affected.

What is meant by over 2.5 goal? All the probabilities

Some websites analyzed a sample of about 50,000 matches and confirmed that there is value on the Under 2.5, but in the presence of precise conditions. To be precise, the site has analyzed 53,000 under-over bets on the closing odds of the last 4 seasons of 30 European, South American and Asian championships.

Summing up, the Under was released in around 51% of the games with an average share of 2.07 and a return of 6.4% (called the Yield). We try to understand which are the most advantageous odds.

  • From 1.00 to 1.50, the yield is very low: -42.6%
  • From 1.51 to 2.00, the yield is low: -14.6%
  • From 2.01 to 3.00, the yield is positive: + 24.5%


The statistics presented make us understand that unlike the 1X2 market, in Under / Over it is better to go against the trend and focus on the Under 2.5 where there are odds higher than 2.00. To do this, you need expertise and in-depth study of the two teams on the field.